Located 30 km north of Cape Town, the Koeberg nuclear power plant is almost at the end of its 40-year designed lifespan. Koeberg is South Africa’s only nuclear plant, and its 1.8 GW generation potential is a key part of Eskom’s ability to provide power to the nation. The 100% state-owned electricity company is in trouble. Constant blackouts (load-shedding) plague the country for up to 12 hours a day. Eskom’s energy availability factor was around 90% in the 1990s. Today, the energy availability factor hovers around 54%, meaning that nearly half of its total nominal generation capacity of 46,446 MW is offline. It is also important to note that the electricity penetration rate has gone up from about 37% in 1994 to over 92% today.

In order to keep some of the lights on, Eskom needs Koeberg but it is an old plant. Construction finished on the reactors almost 40 years ago: Unit 1 in 1984 and Unit 2 in 1985. Unless the South African National Nuclear Regulator (NNR) grants Eskom a 20-year extension on its operating license, Koeberg’s two 900 MW reactors will have to shut down in July 2024. While a long-term operation (LTO) programme is a complex and technically demanding operation, the concept behind it is simple. In order to be safe to operate for another 20 years, worn out parts need to be replaced, modifications made to the plant based on the lessons learnt from nuclear accidents and damaged components and structures repaired. Additionally, vital tests need to be conducted, such as a fast fracture analysis to test the integrity of the reactor vessel itself.

Globally, LTOs are not unheard of for example, France is currently extending the life of 56 reactors, many with the same design as Koeberg’s. The regulatory process is also straightforward. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) conducted a safety inspection in March 2022. After which, Eskom presented its Safety Case, a 290-page document stating what has been done and needs to be done at the plant, to the NNR in July 2022. The regulator will make a decision in the first half of 2024 to grant a 20-year extension or not. Despite making a decision to go for an LTO in 2010, the programme has been massively delayed and Eskom is now rushing to make the July 2024 deadline. This paper argues that the safety of Koeberg cannot be assured, and the only reasonable course of action is to shut down Koeberg permanently.

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